2014 Mid-term Election Landscape Takes Shape
Following an exciting primary election season and with only a couple of months remaining before we head to the polls in November, much of the electoral landscape has taken shape. So, what are we left with? The answer is a handful of competitive races and an extremely interesting struggle for control of the U.S. Senate. Read on for a brief overview of the most competitive—or “toss-up”—federal races this year.* U.S. House of Representatives AZ-1 –Incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick (D) won her 2012 election with an unimpressive 49 percent. With a lackluster first election, paired with an expected low turnout in the mid-terms, Kirkpatrick has a tricky road ahead for re-election. AZ-2 –Rep. Ron Barber (D), who initially made his way to Washington in a special election to replace retiring Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, nearly lost his first full-term election in 2012 to GOP Air Force veteran Martha McSally. Having won that election by less than one percent, McSally may be well-poised to take the seat this year. CA-7–Upgraded to a “toss-up”race after an initial rating of “Lean D,”freshman lawmaker Ami Bera, MD, (D) faces Doug Ose (R). CA-36 –Freshman Rep. Raul Ruiz, MD, (D) was able to win this usually Republican seat in the 2012 elections, but may have trouble keeping it against State Representative Brian Nestande (R). CA-52 –Redistricting has morphed CA-52 into a fierce battle ground, and Rep. Scott Peters (D) will have a close race against challenger Carl DeMaio (R). CO-6 –Due to redistricting, CO-6 has essentially become a swing district.After an initial race rating of “Lean R,”pundits upgraded the race to a “toss-up”when former state speaker Andrew Romanoff announced he would challenge incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman (R). FL-18 –Having defeated then-incumbent Rep. Allen West (R) in a 2012 blockbuster election, Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) may face an equally difficult road to re-election this year. However, unpredictability in the GOP field, which won’t be finalized until a late August primary, may end up working to Rep. Murphy’s advantage. FL-26 –Without a top-of-the-ticket name like President Barack Obama to drive turnout,freshman lawmaker Rep. Joe Garcia (D) faces a tough road to re-election this year. However, and like other competitive races, a crowded opposing field may work in this incumbent’s favor. IA-3 –The retirement of Rep. Tom Latham added to this cycle’s handful of open-seat races, and with it brought an original rating of “Likely R.”However, the long and crowded GOP primary gave Democrat candidate Staci Appel ample time to develop her ground game and resulted in a race rating change to “toss-up.” IL-10 –Former Rep. Robert Dold (R) will serve as a big challenge to incumbent Rep. Brad Schneider (D). NH-1 –Having fought her way back to Congress in 2012,incumbent Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) looks to earn another consecutive term in this classic swing district. Shea-Porter will face former Rep. Frank Guinta (R) in a third consecutive race, assuming he achieves the GOP nomination in September,. NJ-3 –The retirement of Rep. Jon Runyan (R) adds this district to the list of open seats this year. On paper, Democrats might have a chance at flipping this seat. However, it’s the potential for Republican candidates to self-destruct in this area that deems this as a toss-up race. This open seat could go either way between Tom MacArthur (R) or Aimee Belgard (D). NY-21 –Following the retirement of Rep. Bill Owens (D) this open seat was labeled a “toss-up”early in 2014. Following crowded primaries for both parties, the field is now set with GOP candidate Elise Stefanik facing Democrat Aaron Woolf in November. WV-3 –Despite President Obama’s absence on the ballot this cycle, Rep. Nick Rahall (D) will still have a hard time holding off state Sen. Evan Jenkins (R). U.S. Senate Alaska–First term Sen. Mark Begich (D) faces a tough re-election as a Democrat in a heavily Republican state. After winning his seat by just 48 percent last cycle, he is expected to have the same challenges in this election. The Republican candidate will be determined in an August 19 primary. Arkansas–Sen. Mark Pryor (D) has thus far enjoyed relatively easy roads to reelection. However, the atmosphere in Arkansas is changing, and not in his favor. As the state becomes more conservative, Pryor may have a tough time holding back opponent U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton (R). Colorado –At first, it looked as though Sen. Mark Udall (D) would have an easy re-election. However, recent polls following the candidacy announcement of Republican challenger U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner show this will be a much tighter race than previously expected. Georgia–Open seat race due to the retirement of Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R). Following a protracted primary race that resulted in a run-off, U.S. Representative Jack Kingston (R) was finally named the Republican nominee in July. Points of Light CEO, Michelle Nunn, is the Democrat nominee. Despite Georgia’s status as a “red”state, Democrats have made good on their word to work hard to ensure the open seat remained competitive. Kentucky–One of the most talked about races this year is the very tight battle between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and his Democratic opponent Allison Lundergan Grimes. McConnell handily defeated his primary opponent, but Grimes definitely poses a greater threat in the general election. Polling has shown this is going to be a close fight. Louisiana–Senator Mary Landrieu (D) has had to continuously work to hold her seat, and this term proves to be another battle. In Louisiana’s open primary system, all candidates appear on the ballot on Election Day. If no one achieves 50 percent of the vote, the contest is decided in a two-way run-off. To date, U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy, MD, (R) is considered Landrieu’s most viable opponent. Michigan –Open seat due to the retirement of Sen. Carl Levin (D). Michigan usually trends toward electing Democrat candidates, but U.S. Rep Gary Peters (D) is proving to have a tough time against opponent Terri Lynn Land (R). Land has managed to keep herself relevant in this race via excellent fundraising. North Carolina–In her first bid for reelection, incumbent Senator Kay Hagan (D) faces a tough race from challenger Thom Tillis (R), the current Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives. This race is broadly considered one of the most competitive of the cycle. For more information about this year’s mid-term elections, visit our “Elections”webpage at www.entpac.org (log-in using your AAO-HNS Member ID and password). You can also view the list of ENT PAC-supported candidates/incumbents on the ENT PAC webpage. *Race ratings are attributed to the Cook Political Report.
Following an exciting primary election season and with only a couple of months remaining before we head to the polls in November, much of the electoral landscape has taken shape. So, what are we left with? The answer is a handful of competitive races and an extremely interesting struggle for control of the U.S. Senate. Read on for a brief overview of the most competitive—or “toss-up”—federal races this year.*
U.S. House of Representatives
AZ-1 –Incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick (D) won her 2012 election with an unimpressive 49 percent. With a lackluster first election, paired with an expected low turnout in the mid-terms, Kirkpatrick has a tricky road ahead for re-election.
AZ-2 –Rep. Ron Barber (D), who initially made his way to Washington in a special election to replace retiring Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, nearly lost his first full-term election in 2012 to GOP Air Force veteran Martha McSally. Having won that election by less than one percent, McSally may be well-poised to take the seat this year.
CA-7–Upgraded to a “toss-up”race after an initial rating of “Lean D,”freshman lawmaker Ami Bera, MD, (D) faces Doug Ose (R).
CA-36 –Freshman Rep. Raul Ruiz, MD, (D) was able to win this usually Republican seat in the 2012 elections, but may have trouble keeping it against State Representative Brian Nestande (R).
CA-52 –Redistricting has morphed CA-52 into a fierce battle ground, and Rep. Scott Peters (D) will have a close race against challenger Carl DeMaio (R).
CO-6 –Due to redistricting, CO-6 has essentially become a swing district.After an initial race rating of “Lean R,”pundits upgraded the race to a “toss-up”when former state speaker Andrew Romanoff announced he would challenge incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman (R).
FL-18 –Having defeated then-incumbent Rep. Allen West (R) in a 2012 blockbuster election, Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) may face an equally difficult road to re-election this year. However, unpredictability in the GOP field, which won’t be finalized until a late August primary, may end up working to Rep. Murphy’s advantage.
FL-26 –Without a top-of-the-ticket name like President Barack Obama to drive turnout,freshman lawmaker Rep. Joe Garcia (D) faces a tough road to re-election this year. However, and like other competitive races, a crowded opposing field may work in this incumbent’s favor.
IA-3 –The retirement of Rep. Tom Latham added to this cycle’s handful of open-seat races, and with it brought an original rating of “Likely R.”However, the long and crowded GOP primary gave Democrat candidate Staci Appel ample time to develop her ground game and resulted in a race rating change to “toss-up.”
IL-10 –Former Rep. Robert Dold (R) will serve as a big challenge to incumbent Rep. Brad Schneider (D).
NH-1 –Having fought her way back to Congress in 2012,incumbent Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) looks to earn another consecutive term in this classic swing district. Shea-Porter will face former Rep. Frank Guinta (R) in a third consecutive race, assuming he achieves the GOP nomination in September,.
NJ-3 –The retirement of Rep. Jon Runyan (R) adds this district to the list of open seats this year. On paper, Democrats might have a chance at flipping this seat. However, it’s the potential for Republican candidates to self-destruct in this area that deems this as a toss-up race. This open seat could go either way between Tom MacArthur (R) or Aimee Belgard (D).
NY-21 –Following the retirement of Rep. Bill Owens (D) this open seat was labeled a “toss-up”early in 2014. Following crowded primaries for both parties, the field is now set with GOP candidate Elise Stefanik facing Democrat Aaron Woolf in November.
WV-3 –Despite President Obama’s absence on the ballot this cycle, Rep. Nick Rahall (D) will still have a hard time holding off state Sen. Evan Jenkins (R).
U.S. Senate
Alaska–First term Sen. Mark Begich (D) faces a tough re-election as a Democrat in a heavily Republican state. After winning his seat by just 48 percent last cycle, he is expected to have the same challenges in this election. The Republican candidate will be determined in an August 19 primary.
Arkansas–Sen. Mark Pryor (D) has thus far enjoyed relatively easy roads to reelection. However, the atmosphere in Arkansas is changing, and not in his favor. As the state becomes more conservative, Pryor may have a tough time holding back opponent U.S. Rep. Tom Cotton (R).
Colorado –At first, it looked as though Sen. Mark Udall (D) would have an easy re-election. However, recent polls following the candidacy announcement of Republican challenger U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner show this will be a much tighter race than previously expected.
Georgia–Open seat race due to the retirement of Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R). Following a protracted primary race that resulted in a run-off, U.S. Representative Jack Kingston (R) was finally named the Republican nominee in July. Points of Light CEO, Michelle Nunn, is the Democrat nominee. Despite Georgia’s status as a “red”state, Democrats have made good on their word to work hard to ensure the open seat remained competitive.
Kentucky–One of the most talked about races this year is the very tight battle between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and his Democratic opponent Allison Lundergan Grimes. McConnell handily defeated his primary opponent, but Grimes definitely poses a greater threat in the general election. Polling has shown this is going to be a close fight.
Louisiana–Senator Mary Landrieu (D) has had to continuously work to hold her seat, and this term proves to be another battle. In Louisiana’s open primary system, all candidates appear on the ballot on Election Day. If no one achieves 50 percent of the vote, the contest is decided in a two-way run-off. To date, U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy, MD, (R) is considered Landrieu’s most viable opponent.
Michigan –Open seat due to the retirement of Sen. Carl Levin (D). Michigan usually trends toward electing Democrat candidates, but U.S. Rep Gary Peters (D) is proving to have a tough time against opponent Terri Lynn Land (R). Land has managed to keep herself relevant in this race via excellent fundraising.
North Carolina–In her first bid for reelection, incumbent Senator Kay Hagan (D) faces a tough race from challenger Thom Tillis (R), the current Speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives. This race is broadly considered one of the most competitive of the cycle.
For more information about this year’s mid-term elections, visit our “Elections”webpage at www.entpac.org (log-in using your AAO-HNS Member ID and password). You can also view the list of ENT PAC-supported candidates/incumbents on the ENT PAC webpage.
*Race ratings are attributed to the Cook Political Report.